A retired lawyer Dan Jamison from Fresno has given us his solution to keeping Putin from using the tactical nukes he’s threatened. He calls it the Yom Kippur War strategy. Without going into nauseating detail about what the plan is, he uses the analogy of what America did to prevent Russia from destroying Israel during the Yom Kippur War by threatening nukes of our own. Problem is this is not the Middle East where Russia had oil interests, but not the same sense of existential “necessity” they have or perceive they have in Ukraine – one of their most important Satellites during the days of the USSR. I hate say it but I don’t think this sort of nuclear “brinkmanship” is a solution in 2022. Putin has a far greater vested interest in Ukraine than the Russian dictator Brezhnev had in protecting Egypt in 1973. Today, only Georgia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine are Eastern European countries that are not members of the EU and NATO. Putin has been able to occupy and annex Crimea and parts of Georgia without the need for war. Belarus is closely aligned with Russia and is not showing any interest in joining EU or NATO. Moldova is the poorest country in Europe and neither the EU or Russia has must interest in the country. But Ukraine, being the largest and most prosperous of the former USSR satellites is the one country that has split loyalties. Part of Ukraine is Russian speakers and Russia aligned. The other part of Ukraine is very much aligned with the West and is the source of the angst that brought Putin to war. From Putin’s perspective, Crimea and Ukraine cannot be allied with the EU or NATO and would be an existential threat to the Russian motherland if that happened. Annexing Crimea was the easy part. Now Putin, with his back to the wall, has found out that NATO and American supplied weapons are more than enough to prevent Russia from a simple takeover of Ukraine. So, here we are, at the brink of nuclear war.
Comments on the article from Bill Fox BF and Others O:
BF: This guy’s an attorney and he’s advising how to stop a nuclear war by threatening one? How about stop supporting the Oligarchs in Ukraine, give Putin a way out to save face. How about the novel idea of peace initiative instead of prolonging a war?
O: How do you propose to give “Putin a way out to save face” while also ensuring the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine?
BF: You folks need to actually read the history of the 20th Century. When Ukraine was a satellite of the USSR, millions of Ukrainians starved to death because they refused Stalin’s demand to privatize their farms. Recent history, as Ukraine moved closer to the EU, Putin seeing the Crimea as an absolute necessity to having a sea port on the Black Sea, essentially annexed it in 2014 – while your good buddy Obama made threats but took no action. Today, Ukraine, being run by a one party Oligarchy – with the backing of the EU and US under Biden, has threatened to join NATO and the EU. Putin sees this as an existential threat. I do not justify Putin – but now with the threat of tactical nukes – no one should be calling anyone out who’s lobbying for a peaceful solution. One simple solution is to realize that the toothpaste is already out of the tube – you won’t be able to put Ukraine back together the way it was. Putin might accept the Russian part of Ukraine as the new boundary and assurance that Ukraine will remain non aligned and not join NATO or the EU. If we continue down this path to prolong this war, we risk nuclear holocaust – which is insanity. The Military Industrial Complex that supports this war should realize that this is not going to be a never ending war like Iraq or Afghanistan – they can feed off of…this could be nuclear disaster.
O: Giving any more Ukrainian land to Putin is a red line that can’t be crossed. He’s already taken land in Georgia and Crimea. If he is allowed to succeed in Ukraine, he won’t stop. He will keep on invading his neighbors until he occupies all of the Eastern Europe states.
O: How much do they pay to be a Russian troll? Curious
BF: The right play to avoid catastrophe is to accept that Ukraine can never be the same. My sense is that Putin has learned the hard way that Russia does not have the military or the economic bandwidth to recapture their former USSR satellites. So, recycling the “Domino Theory” that got us into the Viet Nam debacle, should be debunked once and for all. Ending the war and avoiding nuclear holocaust should be the goal – not playing “Russian Roulette” with mini me Stalin with his back to the wall. NATO countries should be secure – that is why we supposedly spend all those billions – but the best we can do for Ukraine is to stop the bleeding and secure a new border and peaceful withdrawal of Russian troops. Continuing to send billions to Ukrainian Oligarchs to prolong the war and risk nuclear holocaust to support our Military Industrial Complex is insanity. Maybe even a few folks at Raytheon might be OK with a slightly smaller profit if it meant their children get to live on a planet free of nuclear fallout.
O: Totally disagree. Continue to support Ukraine with weapons, munitions, and money. Keep the sanctions in place. If Russia uses a nuclear weapon, assuming it is a tactical weapon, access the damages, then respond. If the tactical weapon is used, and it causes relatively large loss of life and infrastructure, then use conventional weapons to destroy the oil fields, shipping terminals for oil, natural gas lines, and coal fired power plants inside Russia. If it escalates, sink his nuclear submarines, black sea fleet, and invade Belarus and Kaliningrad. We can not back down, or compromise on Russia occupying Ukraine, and Russia needs to feel the impact at home.
O: And if that doesn’t work, we will have to destroy Russia in its entirety. This is not the best case scenario I get that, but If Russia thinks that they can attack others, kill, destroy and do their will and threaten Nukes if anyone try’s to stop then we will hove zero choice but to engage and if the world ends it ends. The Devil cannot win ever.
After these last two insane comments:
BF: you are totally MAD – as in mutually assured destruction – there is no option other than finding a road to a peaceful end of the conflict…nukes, even tactical nukes are NOT an option!